McClatchy MCNBC Poll (12/26 – 12/28)
Margin of error +/- 5

Romney 27%
Huckabee 23%
Thompson 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 5%
Giuliani 5%

Of particular interest to me is that Romney is doing better, apparently, among evangelical christians – gaining 8 points since early December.  The swing in the vote to Romney is simultaneous to the decline in support for Huckabee, suggesting that Romney is convincing more christians to support his candidacy.

Another plus for Romney is his high favorability ratings among Republicans who consider he has more experience and a better chance to win in November than any of the other candidates.

The polling data also reflects the hard campaigning that Thompson has done over the last couple of weeks.  Why Thompson did not get started sooner in Iowa is anyone’s guess, but his success in Iowa could very well come at the expense of John McCain.  This could have the effect of slowing down McCain in New Hampshire.

Last footnote, Paul looks as if he could surpass Giuliani.  A dead-to-last place finish for Giuliani could really damage his campaign in other states.  Already – many user groups are talking about him switching to a 3rd party bid (a real long shot).  Such talk is draining away his support within the Rebublican Party.

Huckabee 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 11%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%

Three weeks ago the polling data was much more ominous for Romney and others – showing Huckabee in position to win the state handily despite lacking the financial resources and ground network to compete with Romney.

The recent numbers are significant because not only do they show support for Giuliani eroding further, but with McCain’s numbers down – the window of opportunity has clearly shifted away from Huckabee.  Since Caucus rules require a minimum threshold of support for a specific candidate, Romney’s strenth as a second choice puts him in an excellent position to win over more moderate McCain Republicans who find Huckabee’s credentials and long-term viability more dubious.

What remains a mystery is how Ron Paul supporters and new Caucus-goers will vote.  For Paul supporters, there are no candidates like him in the entire Republican field.  Whereas people new to the Caucuses may be persuaded by subtle factors of each candidate (as well as their momentum) in making their decision.  In both cases, the gains for Huckabee and Romney are unpredictable.

In any case, A Romney win in Iowa gives him a tremendous boost heading into New Hampshire.  A defeat slows him down, but a strong second-place finish is not the end of the world.  What could end-up hurting McCain and Giuliani in the long run are poor finishes.  For McCain – finishing anything less than third with a strong showing could push some independents away.  For Giuliani – finishing in very bottom of the pack places his candidacy at risk.

One candidate who appeared to be making a move in all of this was Thompson.  However, this latest poll is not very helpful to his campaign effort in Iowa.  A finish at or below 8% in Iowa could be a signal to Thompson that the handwriting is on the wall.  Certainly, such a finish will prompt wide media speculation that Thompson may drop out of the race.  When that happens his support will erode further in a nasty downward spiral heading into New Hampshire.  While this is all speculation based on where Thompson will finish, it appears clear that a low finish will cause Thompson supporters in New Hampshire to start looking elsewhere.  Just who benefits the most from that remains to be seen.

Latest Iowa Poll
American Research Group released this today:
Huckabee 23%
Romney 21%
McCain 17%
Giuliani 14%
Ron Paul 10%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 2%
Undecided 8%
Between registered Republicans and registered independents (who are allowed to vote in the Iowa caucuses), Ron Paul gets 8% of Republicans and 26% of independents. He polls second among independents, 5% behind McCain.