Though I recognize I have spent most of my earlier blog entries focusing on the Republican field, I intend to change that and blog more equally as we head into 2008.  It is tough getting a blog started, so my apologies to those early readers who felt I was being somewhat one-dimensional.

With that said, 2008 is shaping to be an exciting political year. 

What happens with Bloomberg?

I was just reading an article discussing the growing interest of NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg in running for President.  The prospect of a viable third-party candidate has not been apart of the political landscape since Perot ran for President back in the 1990’s.  As the deadlines for filing such a candidacy draw closer, the media fascination with Bloomberg should pick up steam.

Bloomberg, however, represents a far different personal and political figure than Perot.  He leans much further to the left than Perot, and he is far more to the left than almost any of the Republican candidates.  All of this could spell trouble for Democrats. 

What’s more, Bloomberg lacks the same generational “get under the hood and fix the car” mentality that resonated with many independent voters, middle class Americans and Reaganites when Perot ran for president.  

There is no doubt that his vast financial fortune will get him access – to media and to voters.  However, one element being underlooked is how impressed or motivated voters dissatisfied with partisan politics in Washington will be with a Bloomberg candidacy.  Perot’s movement was a highly spontaneous one driven by people.  Bloomberg has analysts and teams creating an organizational structure, but desire for his candidacy is being driven from the top – down, as opposed to the opposite.  There is no doubt Bloomberg wants to tap into an anti-Washington sentiment, but right now the people do not consider him to be the right candidate, otherwise, a movement would spring up and serve as the backbone, as the launching pad.

Democrats and Republicans

The Democratic and Republican fields are both tightly locked.  Anything can happen, and anyone in the top tiers can still win their party’s nomination. 

Of all the candidates still performing well – I am surprised at the resiliency of John Edwards.  All the polls show him neck and neck with Clinton and Obama in Iowa. One recently has him slightly ahead, within the margin of error (see McClatchy / MSNBC poll).  I recognize he has been campaigning in Iowa for quite some time, however his name recognition in the national reports has been very low.  Most of the attention in the national media has been directed towards Clinton and Obama.  What explains this?

It appears that Iowans have come to trust John Edwards.  It may just come to pass that all the attention on Hillary and Obama could pay off in Edwards’ favor, and if the latest poll numbers are correct that show him slightly ahead – Edwards could surprise quite a few people on caucus night. 

Right now, Obama could slip down enough to give Edwards a boost.  The unthinkable would be for Clinton to drop down into third.  If that happens – I would love to camp out in New Hampshire in the days leading up to the Primary.

The Republican side has more openings, though not in Iowa.  It’s Huckabee or Romney.  Conventional wisdom suggests that Huckabee has lost ground and that Romney, with his strong organization and campaign machine, should eek out a win.  Iowa has become more a battle ground for third place and how the other candidates get position for New Hampshire and beyond.

While I have a hard-time believing that Republicans are going to nominate Huckabee, I cannot discount how he has performed.  Yet, the key obstacle he has to overcome is this: Huckabee is to mainstream Republicans what Rudy Giuliani is to religious conservatives – simply unpalatable.  This would suggest that Romney and McCain are the best prospects for the Republican Party, and yet, neither has broken free of the pack.

Thompson’s candidacy also could be problematic.  If Thompson should finish a strong third in Iowa (I say he needs to do better than 17%), that could take away McCain’s momentum in New Hampshire – or at the very least – slow him down.  If Thompson injects more life into his campaign and builds some momentum – the Republicans could be in for a long nominating season including a possible battle for delegates at the convention.

Is there anyone else?

As if the above were not enough to make 2008 an exciting political season, we have to beg the question: Is there anyone else who wants the job?

What if the left were to get a viable and wealthy candidate from Hollywood to run as a Green Party or independent candidate?  Or what if some other American launches an independent bid?

Is there anyone else out there?

MORE TO COME IN 2008…

McClatchy MCNBC Poll (12/26 – 12/28)
Margin of error +/- 5

Romney 27%
Huckabee 23%
Thompson 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 5%
Giuliani 5%

Of particular interest to me is that Romney is doing better, apparently, among evangelical christians – gaining 8 points since early December.  The swing in the vote to Romney is simultaneous to the decline in support for Huckabee, suggesting that Romney is convincing more christians to support his candidacy.

Another plus for Romney is his high favorability ratings among Republicans who consider he has more experience and a better chance to win in November than any of the other candidates.

The polling data also reflects the hard campaigning that Thompson has done over the last couple of weeks.  Why Thompson did not get started sooner in Iowa is anyone’s guess, but his success in Iowa could very well come at the expense of John McCain.  This could have the effect of slowing down McCain in New Hampshire.

Last footnote, Paul looks as if he could surpass Giuliani.  A dead-to-last place finish for Giuliani could really damage his campaign in other states.  Already – many user groups are talking about him switching to a 3rd party bid (a real long shot).  Such talk is draining away his support within the Rebublican Party.

Huckabee 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 11%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%

Three weeks ago the polling data was much more ominous for Romney and others – showing Huckabee in position to win the state handily despite lacking the financial resources and ground network to compete with Romney.

The recent numbers are significant because not only do they show support for Giuliani eroding further, but with McCain’s numbers down – the window of opportunity has clearly shifted away from Huckabee.  Since Caucus rules require a minimum threshold of support for a specific candidate, Romney’s strenth as a second choice puts him in an excellent position to win over more moderate McCain Republicans who find Huckabee’s credentials and long-term viability more dubious.

What remains a mystery is how Ron Paul supporters and new Caucus-goers will vote.  For Paul supporters, there are no candidates like him in the entire Republican field.  Whereas people new to the Caucuses may be persuaded by subtle factors of each candidate (as well as their momentum) in making their decision.  In both cases, the gains for Huckabee and Romney are unpredictable.

In any case, A Romney win in Iowa gives him a tremendous boost heading into New Hampshire.  A defeat slows him down, but a strong second-place finish is not the end of the world.  What could end-up hurting McCain and Giuliani in the long run are poor finishes.  For McCain – finishing anything less than third with a strong showing could push some independents away.  For Giuliani – finishing in very bottom of the pack places his candidacy at risk.

One candidate who appeared to be making a move in all of this was Thompson.  However, this latest poll is not very helpful to his campaign effort in Iowa.  A finish at or below 8% in Iowa could be a signal to Thompson that the handwriting is on the wall.  Certainly, such a finish will prompt wide media speculation that Thompson may drop out of the race.  When that happens his support will erode further in a nasty downward spiral heading into New Hampshire.  While this is all speculation based on where Thompson will finish, it appears clear that a low finish will cause Thompson supporters in New Hampshire to start looking elsewhere.  Just who benefits the most from that remains to be seen.

Latest Iowa Poll
American Research Group released this today:
Huckabee 23%
Romney 21%
McCain 17%
Giuliani 14%
Ron Paul 10%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 2%
Undecided 8%
Between registered Republicans and registered independents (who are allowed to vote in the Iowa caucuses), Ron Paul gets 8% of Republicans and 26% of independents. He polls second among independents, 5% behind McCain.