polipizza

Romney gaining in latest Iowa poll

According to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday, the Republican race has tightened significantly, putting Romney to an even-status with Huckabee, well in position to over-take him and win the Caucus.

Huckabee 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 11%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%

Three weeks ago the polling data was much more ominous for Romney and others – showing Huckabee in position to win the state handily despite lacking the financial resources and ground network to compete with Romney.

The recent numbers are significant because not only do they show support for Giuliani eroding further, but with McCain’s numbers down – the window of opportunity has clearly shifted away from Huckabee.  Since Caucus rules require a minimum threshold of support for a specific candidate, Romney’s strenth as a second choice puts him in an excellent position to win over more moderate McCain Republicans who find Huckabee’s credentials and long-term viability more dubious.

What remains a mystery is how Ron Paul supporters and new Caucus-goers will vote.  For Paul supporters, there are no candidates like him in the entire Republican field.  Whereas people new to the Caucuses may be persuaded by subtle factors of each candidate (as well as their momentum) in making their decision.  In both cases, the gains for Huckabee and Romney are unpredictable.

In any case, A Romney win in Iowa gives him a tremendous boost heading into New Hampshire.  A defeat slows him down, but a strong second-place finish is not the end of the world.  What could end-up hurting McCain and Giuliani in the long run are poor finishes.  For McCain – finishing anything less than third with a strong showing could push some independents away.  For Giuliani – finishing in very bottom of the pack places his candidacy at risk.

One candidate who appeared to be making a move in all of this was Thompson.  However, this latest poll is not very helpful to his campaign effort in Iowa.  A finish at or below 8% in Iowa could be a signal to Thompson that the handwriting is on the wall.  Certainly, such a finish will prompt wide media speculation that Thompson may drop out of the race.  When that happens his support will erode further in a nasty downward spiral heading into New Hampshire.  While this is all speculation based on where Thompson will finish, it appears clear that a low finish will cause Thompson supporters in New Hampshire to start looking elsewhere.  Just who benefits the most from that remains to be seen.

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